Release Date: December 26, 2002
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DECEMBER 2002

Economic signals continue to be mixed. Industrial production in November rose a scant 0.1%, but this was the first increase since July. However, durable goods orders fell 1.4% from the previous month. The National Association of Purchasing Management manufacturing index rose to 54.3 in November (any reading above 50 indicates growth). Personal income fell 4.5% in the third quarter, but consumer spending for the month rose 0.4% from October. The jobless rate rose to 6% in November, an 8-year high. But productivity climbed 5.15 in the third quarter, the fastest pace since 1966. Forecasters are hard pressed to find a consistent trend in such a mixed picture.

LUMBER PRICES. The Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index showed overall lumber price index in November at 168.8 (1982 equals 100), up slightly from 168.16 for the previous month and up from 166.1 for the same month a year ago. Hardwood lumber was at an index of 179.8, almost even with 179.9 for the preceding month and up from 178.3 the same month a year ago. Millwork prices were at an index of 179.5, down from 180.1 the preceding month, and even with 179.5 a year earlier.

FIXTURE LABOR FORCE. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total number of workers in the fixture and furniture industry in November was 482,900, down from a revised 485,100 the previous month and down from 492,500 for the same month a year ago. Average hourly wage was $12.74 an hour, up from a revised $12.69 the previous month and up from $12.45 an hour a year ago.

NEW STORE CONSTRUCTION. As partially reflected in Commerce Department figures on new commercial construction excluding office and hotels, new stores were part of the $4.9 billion value of retail and non-office commercial construction in October, up slightly $4.7 billion for the previous month, but down from $5.4 billion for the same month a year ago.

RETAIL SALES. Seasonally adjusted retail sales (excluding automotive) in November totaled $231.37 billion, up slightly from a revised $230.22 billion for the previous month and up from $220.36 billion for the same month a year ago. Unadjusted retail sales were $238.14 billion, up from $229.07 billion for the previous month, and up from $228.58 billion a year ago. Seasonally adjusted department store sales totaled $18.66 billion, almost even with $18.92 billion the previous month but down from $19.35 billion a year ago. Seasonally adjusted apparel and clothing store sales totaled $14.58 billion, almost even with $14.77 billion for the previous month and up from $13.89 billion for the same month a year ago.