Release Date: June 27, 2003
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JUNE 2003

The mixed-signals economy grinds on, with no firm direction one way or the other. The Commerce Department revised its report on first quarter GDP, down to an increase of 1.4%, down from an original estimate of 1.9% gain. Yet the most recent Index of Leading Economic Indicators showed a 1% increase when analysts were expecting half that growth. The unemployment rate at 6.1% hit the highest level in nine years – but the mid-May report on number of unemployment applications rose by 13,000 to 421,000, a five-week low. Orders for durable goods fell 0.3% in May, but industrial production rose a slim 0.1% for the month. Economists continue to look for a clearer picture.

LUMBER PRICES. The Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index showed overall lumber price index in May at 169.4 (1982 equals 100), almost equal to 169.5 the previous month but down from 173.0 for the same month a year ago. Hardwood lumber was at an index of 188.5, up from 187.6 for the preceding month and up from 177.4 the same month a year ago. Millwork prices were at an index of 180.8 the same as the preceding month but up from 179.7 a year earlier.

FIXTURE LABOR FORCE. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the average hourly wage of workers in the fixture and furniture industry was $12.95 an hour, even with $12.93 the previous month but up from $12.49 an hour a year ago.

NEW STORE CONSTRUCTION. As partially reflected in Commerce Department figures on new commercial construction excluding office and hotels, new stores were part of the $4.3 billion value of retail and non-office commercial construction in April, up slightly from $4.2 billion for the previous month, but down from $4.9 billion for the same month a year ago.

RETAIL SALES. Seasonally adjusted retail sales (excluding automotive) in May totaled $234.29 billion, almost even with a revised $233.98 billion for the previous month but up from $226.35 billion for the same month a year ago. Unadjusted retail sales were $244.49 billion, up from $230.23 billion for the previous month, and up from $236.08 billion a year ago. Seasonally adjusted department store sales totaled $17.99 billion, almost even with $17.87 billion the previous month but down from $18.80 billion a year ago. Seasonally adjusted apparel and clothing store sales totaled $14.46 billion, almost even with $14.32 billion for the previous month and $14.50 billion for the same month a year ago.