Release Date: February 27, 2007
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FEBRUARY 2007

Economic data in January had mixed results. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators was minimally up in January with a 0.1% increase over the previous month, but rose 0.7% for the period July, 2006, through January, 2007. Productivity of non-farm workers rose 3% in the fourth quarter of last year, but the growth rate slowed for the full year 2006 to a 2.1% gain, compared to a 2.3% increase in 2005 and 4.1% in 2002. Manufacturing indexes were down, as the Commerce Department reported new durable goods orders fell 7.6% in January, compared to a 2.8% jump in December. The Federal Reserve reported industrial production dropped 0.5% in January, after a 0.5% gain in December. The annual rate of construction of new homes in January dropped a whopping 38% from the previous month, the sharpest decline in almost a decade.

LUMBER PRICES. The Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index showed overall lumber price index in January at 176.8 (1982 equals 100), down from 188.3 the previous month, and down from 199.4 for the same month a year ago. Hardwood lumber was at an index of 193.9, down from a revised 195.1 for the preceding month and down from 195.9 for the same month a year ago. Millwork prices were at an index of 201.1, down slightly from 201.7 the preceding month, but up slightly from 200.6 for the same period a year earlier.

FIXTURE LABOR FORCE. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the average hourly wage in the fixture and furniture industry in January was $14.38 an hour, even with the previous month, but up from $13.55 an hour a year ago. The average work week of non-supervisor workers was 38.9 hours, down from 39.7 hours the previous month but up from 38.0 hours a year ago.

NEW STORE CONSTRUCTION. As partially reflected in Commerce Department figures on new commercial construction excluding office and hotels, new stores were part of the $6.59 billion annual rate value of retail and non-office commercial construction in December, down from a revised $7.13 billion for the previous month, but up from $6.17 billion for the same month a year ago.

RETAIL SALES. Seasonally adjusted retail sales (excluding automotive) in January totaled $293.81 billion, up from a revised $292.85 billion for the previous month, and up from $284.21 billion for the same month a year ago. Unadjusted retail sales were $268.71 billion, down from $353.09 billion for the previous month, and up from $256.01 billion a year ago. Seasonally adjusted department store sales totaled $18.05 billion, up from $17.80 the previous month, and up slightly from $17.99 billion a year ago. Seasonally adjusted apparel and clothing store sales totaled $18.41 billion, up slightly from $18.23 the previous month and up from $17.61 billion for the same month a year ago.