Release Date: November 27, 2007
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NOVEMBER 2007

While analysts are still deliberating over the direction of the economy, consumers have taken a distinctive negative outlook. The Conference Board reported that its index of consumer confidence plunged to 87.3 in October, down from 96.2 only a month earlier. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators was down 0.5% in October, after a small rise in September. The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production in October fell 0.5% after a 1.8% gain the previous month. Home construction only got worse, as The Commerce Department reported total single-family home construction fell 7.3%, to its lowest level in 16 years. One bright spot was U.S. worker productivity, which grew 2.2% in the second quarter from the previous period.

LUMBER PRICES. The Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index showed overall lumber price index in October at an index of 171.1 (1982 equals 100), down from 175.6 the previous month, and down from 174.6 for the same month a year ago. Hardwood lumber was at an index of 191.1, almost the same as 191.2 for the preceding month and down from 195.3 for the same month a year ago. Millwork prices were at an index of 201.4, up slightly from 201.1 the preceding month, and down slightly from 201.6 for the same period a year earlier.

FIXTURE LABOR FORCE. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the average hourly wage in the fixture and furniture industry in October was $14.39 an hour, up slightly from a revised $14.36 the previous month, and up from $14.04 an hour a year ago. The average work week of non-supervisor workers was 39.2 hours, down from 39.8 the previous month, and the same as 39.2 hours a year ago.

NEW STORE CONSTRUCTION. As partially reflected in Commerce Department figures on new commercial construction excluding office and hotels, new stores were part of the $7.68 billion annual rate value of retail and non-office commercial construction in September, the same as the previous month, and up from $6.99 billion for the same month a year ago.

RETAIL SALES. Seasonally adjusted retail sales (excluding automotive) in October totaled $300.91 billion, up slightly from a revised $300.42 billion for the previous month, and up from $286.04 billion for the same month a year ago. Unadjusted retail sales were $299.12 billion, up from $284.64 billion for the previous month, and up from $281.74 billion a year ago. Seasonally adjusted department store sales totaled $17.27 billion, down slightly from a revised $17.37 the previous month, and down from $17.63 billion a year ago. Seasonally adjusted apparel and clothing store sales totaled $19.03 billion, almost the same as $19.01 the previous month, but up from $18.23 billion for the same month a year ago.